Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 01 2020 | 7854 | 38250 | 245 | 58 | 779 | 1603 |
| December 02 2020 | 7909 | 38383 | 248 | 59 | 727 | 1307 |
| December 03 2020 | 7956 | 38522 | 248 | 59 | 706 | 1178 |
| December 04 2020 | 8039 | 38754 | 250 | 59 | 703 | 1109 |
| December 05 2020 | 8099 | 38881 | 253 | 61 | 620 | 1024 |
| December 06 2020 | 8149 | 39004 | 254 | 62 | 586 | 967 |
| December 07 2020 | 8178 | 39102 | 254 | 63 | 615 | 928 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 3.7 | 5.5% | 34 | 0.3% | 49 | 0.43% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 6.6 | 10.9% | 67 | 0.49% | 108 | 0.79% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 15.3 | 27.8% | 171 | 0.82% | 241 | 1.15% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 10.9 | 18.5% | 114 | 0.84% | 165 | 1.21% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 5.6 | 10.7% | 66 | 0.63% | 103 | 0.98% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 6.6 | 11.7% | 72 | 0.57% | 115 | 0.92% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4.6 | 8.9% | 55 | 0.48% | 88 | 0.76% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.3 | 5.9% | 36 | 0.34% | 59 | 0.56% |
| All ages | 29 | 55.4 | 100% | 615 | 0.59% | 928 | 0.89% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 01 2020 | 4794 | 23095 | 134 | 52 | 619 | 1101 |
| December 02 2020 | 4921 | 23146 | 138 | 53 | 666 | 1124 |
| December 03 2020 | 4990 | 23207 | 139 | 53 | 686 | 1096 |
| December 04 2020 | 5051 | 23328 | 141 | 53 | 675 | 1082 |
| December 05 2020 | 5140 | 23414 | 145 | 55 | 685 | 965 |
| December 06 2020 | 5185 | 23476 | 147 | 55 | 655 | 930 |
| December 07 2020 | 5218 | 23536 | 149 | 55 | 687 | 914 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 3.4 | 4.7% | 32 | 0.41% | 43 | 0.55% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 7.6 | 10.2% | 70 | 0.83% | 92 | 1.09% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 13.4 | 15.6% | 107 | 1.5% | 139 | 1.95% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 14.9 | 17.5% | 120 | 1.43% | 158 | 1.88% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 14.1 | 17.6% | 121 | 1.56% | 166 | 2.14% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 9.1 | 12.1% | 83 | 0.86% | 115 | 1.19% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 6.6 | 8.7% | 60 | 0.71% | 78 | 0.93% |
| 70+ | 4 | 9.7 | 13.7% | 94 | 1.32% | 123 | 1.73% |
| All ages | 33 | 78.9 | 100% | 687 | 1.06% | 914 | 1.41% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 01 2020 | 3650 | 15395 | 148 | 41 | 438 | 896 |
| December 02 2020 | 3688 | 15466 | 151 | 41 | 438 | 806 |
| December 03 2020 | 3721 | 15508 | 154 | 41 | 414 | 698 |
| December 04 2020 | 3754 | 15580 | 156 | 42 | 409 | 616 |
| December 05 2020 | 3802 | 15697 | 156 | 40 | 395 | 590 |
| December 06 2020 | 3844 | 15737 | 156 | 47 | 379 | 594 |
| December 07 2020 | 3854 | 15768 | 157 | 47 | 389 | 547 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.7 | 5.7% | 22 | 0.41% | 31 | 0.57% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 3.4 | 9% | 35 | 0.64% | 46 | 0.85% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 4.0 | 12.6% | 49 | 1.08% | 68 | 1.5% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 5.4 | 15.4% | 60 | 1.11% | 83 | 1.53% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 4.3 | 13.1% | 51 | 1.02% | 68 | 1.37% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 5.0 | 13.1% | 51 | 0.75% | 87 | 1.28% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 4.3 | 13.4% | 52 | 0.82% | 72 | 1.14% |
| 70+ | 1 | 5.4 | 17.7% | 69 | 1.09% | 92 | 1.45% |
| All ages | 10 | 33.6 | 100% | 389 | 0.86% | 547 | 1.21% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 01 2020 | 8126 | 40839 | 170 | 36 | 839 | 1485 |
| December 02 2020 | 8209 | 40943 | 173 | 37 | 869 | 1364 |
| December 03 2020 | 8400 | 41172 | 180 | 38 | 999 | 1481 |
| December 04 2020 | 8556 | 41411 | 180 | 39 | 1056 | 1475 |
| December 05 2020 | 8641 | 41604 | 181 | 39 | 990 | 1354 |
| December 06 2020 | 8677 | 41807 | 182 | 40 | 916 | 1337 |
| December 07 2020 | 8706 | 41889 | 182 | 40 | 893 | 1305 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 4.0 | 4% | 36 | 0.3% | 55 | 0.47% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 11.1 | 12.5% | 112 | 0.68% | 155 | 0.94% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 18.1 | 19.1% | 171 | 0.8% | 256 | 1.2% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 15.1 | 16.6% | 148 | 1.09% | 210 | 1.54% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 11.0 | 12.4% | 111 | 0.82% | 164 | 1.21% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 11.9 | 14% | 125 | 0.88% | 174 | 1.23% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 9.1 | 10.2% | 91 | 0.64% | 143 | 1.01% |
| 70+ | 6 | 8.0 | 11.1% | 99 | 0.76% | 148 | 1.14% |
| All ages | 29 | 88.4 | 100% | 893 | 0.76% | 1305 | 1.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 01 2020 | 27600 | 276005 | 794 | 81 | 2946 | 4670 |
| December 02 2020 | 27830 | 276346 | 811 | 102 | 2964 | 4356 |
| December 03 2020 | 28226 | 277243 | 823 | 102 | 3220 | 4357 |
| December 04 2020 | 28610 | 278095 | 837 | 102 | 2855 | 4293 |
| December 05 2020 | 28947 | 278814 | 845 | 104 | 2957 | 4293 |
| December 06 2020 | 29053 | 279749 | 850 | 104 | 2686 | 4187 |
| December 07 2020 | 29303 | 280474 | 855 | 104 | 2891 | 4297 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 15 | 10.9 | 4.9% | 141 | 0.23% | 221 | 0.37% |
| 10-19 | 27 | 32.4 | 12.7% | 367 | 0.52% | 588 | 0.83% |
| 20-29 | 59 | 56.3 | 21.7% | 626 | 0.6% | 918 | 0.88% |
| 30-39 | 50 | 46.4 | 17.2% | 497 | 0.65% | 736 | 0.96% |
| 40-49 | 23 | 37.0 | 14.4% | 417 | 0.64% | 634 | 0.97% |
| 50-59 | 33 | 32.0 | 12.5% | 360 | 0.55% | 512 | 0.78% |
| 60-69 | 26 | 22.0 | 8.1% | 233 | 0.43% | 353 | 0.65% |
| 70+ | 17 | 22.1 | 8.6% | 250 | 0.51% | 335 | 0.68% |
| All ages | 250 | 259.1 | 100% | 2891 | 0.53% | 4297 | 0.79% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 01 2020 | 391313 | 2156410 | 17372 | 3420 | 40144 | 67465 |
| December 02 2020 | 395090 | 2162616 | 17569 | 3502 | 40414 | 63253 |
| December 03 2020 | 399708 | 2169970 | 17741 | 3562 | 41937 | 61236 |
| December 04 2020 | 404555 | 2180320 | 17943 | 3625 | 40582 | 59610 |
| December 05 2020 | 409386 | 2188949 | 18126 | 3702 | 39944 | 58217 |
| December 06 2020 | 412177 | 2196722 | 18216 | 3719 | 37640 | 57501 |
| December 07 2020 | 414332 | 2202473 | 18286 | 3738 | 38495 | 56561 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 132 | 171.0 | 4.6% | 1758 | 0.27% | 2547 | 0.4% |
| 10-19 | 252 | 420.3 | 11.1% | 4284 | 0.57% | 6221 | 0.82% |
| 20-29 | 377 | 656.7 | 16.8% | 6456 | 0.85% | 9596 | 1.27% |
| 30-39 | 357 | 641.6 | 16.1% | 6188 | 0.82% | 8974 | 1.19% |
| 40-49 | 271 | 558.4 | 14.4% | 5527 | 0.79% | 8178 | 1.17% |
| 50-59 | 294 | 590.6 | 15% | 5780 | 0.71% | 8492 | 1.04% |
| 60-69 | 241 | 440.1 | 11.3% | 4364 | 0.58% | 6431 | 0.85% |
| 70+ | 231 | 392.3 | 10.7% | 4138 | 0.65% | 6122 | 0.96% |
| All ages | 2155 | 3871.0 | 100% | 38495 | 0.66% | 56561 | 0.97% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88.7 | 79.4 | 115.2 | 55.4 | 112.1 | 28.4% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141.4 | 78.9 | 90.9 | 52.4% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120.9 | 33.6 | 63.1 | 36.2% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 110.4 | 93.6 | 120.3 | 88.4 | 120.3 | 33.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78.6 | 82.7 | 88.4 | 259.1 | 356.9 | 28.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97.1 | 82.2 | 126.8 | 3871 | 5152.1 | 34.1% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 3.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.52 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-28 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3463"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges